What Will Win, What Should Win

So what’s it going to be: the father trying save his daughter’s life, or the twin brothers trying save each other’s souls? The revolutionary mother on the run, or the spiritual healer who stays and fights? The martial arts sensei, or the harmonica-playing mentor? Those who battle Neo-nazis, or those taking on literal bloodsuckers?

Often, the Oscars tend to head into their final stretch with a clear frontrunner a few steps, or sometimes several laps in front of the pack. The ceremony is practically finished before it’s even started, and it’s essentially all over except for the foregone “And the winner is…” announcement. Other years, it’s anyone’s guess as to which film might leave with the biggest of the little-gold-men awards, with a title or three going through a variety of rises and falls leading up to the big night. (See: 2025.) And occasionally, you get an Oscars race where two specific movies feel like they’re virtually neck in neck. That’s what we’re looking at right now.

We should start by saying that any year in which Paul Thomas Anderson‘s One Battle After Another and Ryan Cooglers’ Sinners are duking it out for Best Picture is a good Oscars year. And when you factor in that the competition of these dual first-round contenders consists of Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Train Dreams, The Secret Agent and Bugonia — that’s a great year for both the Academy Awards and the movies in general. Even the requisite blockbuster entry F1 is a banger.

It’s also worth noting that we are not official Oscar prognosticators, or as we call them, “Oscarnosticators™.” (This phrase will totally catch on, trust us.) There are professionals who cover this beat 24-7, and are far better at crunching numbers, comparing for-your-consideration stats, and reading tea leaves than we are. That said, we’ve been paying attention to the critics-group accolades, the high-profile festival stops, the FYC campaigning, and who’s been regularly going up to the podium on the awards-show circuit. So we have a few predictions on who may be leaving the Oscars ceremony on Sunday, March 15th, a winner — as well as a highly subjective wishlist regarding who we’d like to see win. Read on.

Editor’s picks

Best Director
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

The Best Picture showdown is being played out in the Best Director category as well, and once again, we’re looking at a staggering amount of talent in this year’s roster. Frankly, any of these folks taking home the Oscar is, in our view, a big win for anyone who wants filmmakers to take big swings and go against the grain. Even Hamnet, arguably the most “traditional” type of Oscar-nominated film this year, feels anything but formulaic thanks to Chloé Zhao’s ability to deftly skirt past grief-porn clichés while still delivering emotional payoffs. But really, this race boils down to two names: Paul Thomas Anderson and Ryan Coogler.

Who Will Win: Anderson has won at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards, the BAFTAs, the Producers Guild Awards (PGAs), and, crucially, the Directors Guild Awards (DGAs). We’re not a big believer in the whole “it’s their time” ideology behind Oscar wins, which could also play out in some of the acting categories. But PTA remains one of the most revered and consistently brilliant writer-directors working today, and his filmography over the past 30 years represents some of the landmarks of modern American cinema. He’s been nominated a number of times, yet somehow hasn’t taken home the Oscar. Many feel he’s overdue, especially given he’s produced one of his best works in Battle. However…
Who Should Win: …You could take all of the above points and equally apply them to Coogler, who also hit the ground running from his very first movie (Fruitvale Station) and hasn’t stopped since. Think of the way that he turned what could have been two mere franchise spinoffs — Creed and Black Panther — into artworks that were highly personal, extremely popular, and flat-out astounding. Sinners is something even more unique, in that it’s an original work that uses a mix of several different genres as a springboard into complex thematic territory; it’s filled with bravura filmmaking (that metaphysical music sequence!); and very much delivers the goods. It’s a real dilemma in terms of the “should” aspect.
Who We’d Like to See Win: Both, to be honest. But we’re calling this for PTA.

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Best Supporting Actress
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

For Fanning — one of the most consistently wonderful young actors working today — and Lilleaas — a real discovery for many of us American viewers — the nominations themselves are wins. We don’t necessarily think that two performers from Sentimental Value cancel each other out. But the three other nominees in this category have been splitting the Best Supporting Actor awards at other ceremonies: Teyana Taylor took home the Golden Globe; Wunmi Mosaku walked away with a BAFTA; and Amy Madigan won the Actor Awards, formerly known as the Screen Actors Guild awards (SAGs). That last one is a crucial bellwether, however, given of the overlap between SAG voters and Oscar voters.

Who Will Win: Madigan. Again, we don’t want to invoke the “it’s time” thing, as that suggests that her work in Weapons isn’t worthy of a statue. It most certainly is, in our opinion. But the unexpected nature of seeing a beloved veteran actor playing that part in such a go-for-broke way, combined with the traditional love for performers who’ve been consistently doing solid work for decades, gives her an edge. Did we mention she’s fucking amazing in this movie?! We did? Ok. Cool.
Who Should Win: Taylor. There were few performances that blew away last year as much as her take on Perfidia Beverly Hills, the One Battle character who kicks it all off. She goes small and subtle (watch the way she lets you see Perfidia calculating her moves simply by moving her eyes). She goes big and bold. She makes you feel like you’re watching someone who can do anything. You’re thinking about her character even when she’s not onscreen. That’s all Teyana.
Who We’d Like to See Win: Mosaku. The more times we watch Sinners, the more we realize how crucial her character is to the story — and how the actor playing this healer provides so much of the emotional grounding that informs her.

Best Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo, Sinners

One relative newcomer (welcome to the club, Jacob Elordi). Four veterans, all of whom do stellar work in their respective roles. And among that quartet: one big Sentimental favorite. We’re still angry Delroy Lindo didn’t even get nominated for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods. It’s not an exaggeration to say that Sean Penn does some of the strongest work he’s done in years in One Battle, and that licking-the-comb scene alone is worthy of an Oscar (and a shot to prevention some sort of horrible bacterial infection). On the flip side, Benicio Del Toro proves once again that you can be a team player and also stand out by simply filling in the margins of a bigger narrative. His performance is like a symphony of perfect little moments. And then there is Stellan Skarsgård.

Who Will Win: We think Skarsgård still has the lead here. Yes, Penn did just win the BAFTA and, tellingly, the SAG award. And Del Toro had also been the odds-on favorite early in the race. But they’ve also both won Oscars before, whereas the Swedish actor is the sort of longtime clutch performer with range, versatility and presence that the industry loves to reward late in their careers. Plus the backstory regarding his recovery from a health scare likely resonates with voters. Not to be crass but, y’know — these narratives become part of campaigning.
Who Should Win: Penn.
Who We’d Like to See Win: Del Toro. We’d drink a dozen small beers to see this happen.

Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Four great performances, one serious WTF outlier (take a guess). Emma Stone has won twice before. Her work in Bugonia is solid per usual, but it’s not a showcase on the level of Poor Things. Both Rose Byrne and Renate Reinsve absolutely deserve to be among the nominees — the former had been cleaning out among critics’ groups and won the Golden Globe, and the latter is one of the most compelling actors to come out of Europe in ages. Both do excellent work in excellent movies. Both might have easily walked away with the Oscar in years where the competition was less fierce. That, for better or worse, is not this year.

Who Will Win: Jessie Buckley. Our love of her performance as a grieving mother in Hamnet is a matter of public record, and her Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG wins suggests she remains the frontrunner here. Even as the movie split critics and, we imagine, Academy voters as well, virtually everyone has recognized that what the Irish actor is doing here is above and beyond. There is no such thing as an Oscar sure thing. This one feels as close to one as the 2026 edition gets.
Who Should Win: Buckley.
Who We’d Like to See Win: Buckley. Throw in a Pulitzer and a Nobel Peace Prize as well.

Best Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Because every year needs a good old-fashioned last-minute Oscars surge-slash-upset, and damned if the Best Actor category didn’t deliver this year. Leonardo DiCaprio was pretty much a lock to get into the Final Five, given he starred in one of the most high-profile films of the 2025. Ditto Michael B. Jordan, who should technically be nominated twice. Ethan Hawke was a pleasant surprise, although much deserved when you consider the quality work he does in Blue Moon. Take that sentence, multiply it by 10, and that would describe our reaction to actor Wagner Moura getting the nod for the standout Brazilian movie The Secret Agent. Timothée Chalamet remains a divisive figure among voters, and is also one of the single most recognizable movie stars under the age of 35 on the planet. Nobody else could have given that Marty Supreme performance, and if Josh Safdie’s film wasn’t going to convince folks that Chalamet’s goal to become one of “the greats” wasn’t a lot of hot air, nothing could. And yet: Remember how we mentioned that “upset” thing up top?

Who Will Win: Michael B. Jordan. Chalamet had a lot of momentum going into awards season, powered by his sheer star wattage and a highly unusual, attention-grabbing FYC campaign. There were a lot of folks who seemed willing to coronate him as the Next Great Generational Talent with an Oscar. And look, he will win one some day. Just not this year. Sinners has been building up a lot of good will and support on the campaign trail, and Jordan’s win at the SAGs on Sunday now makes him the solid frontrunner for Best Actor. A win there doesn’t necessarily guarantee anything — just ask Timothée Chalamet. But Jordan is as much a movie star and a Next Great Generation Talent contender as Timmy C. is. Make him an Oscar winner now.
Who Should Win: Jordan. Like we said in our Best Performances of 2025 list, there are moments when you watch his dual performances as the twins Smoke and Stack, and have to consciously remind yourself that you are not watching two separate actors. There are great performances, plural, coming from him here.
Who We’d Like to See Win: Jordan.

Trending Stories

Best Picture
Bugonia
F1
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners
Train Dreams

And we now come full circle, back to the big showdown. Again, we can’t emphasize enough how these 10 nominees attest to what a strong, bang-up year 2025 was for moviegoers. A hell of a lineup. And to see the way that two bold, brilliant, outside-the-box epics like One Battle After Another and Sinners have captured not just voters’ attention — a record-breaking 16 nominations for Ryan Coogler’s movie, from an awards-giving body that’s usually averse to anything horror-related! — but the love and admiration of viewers is awe-inspiring. We’re all winners in terms of these films reminding folks what the movies can do, although given that the studio behind both of them is now about to become part of a company that has some worrisome agendas already in place… well, that’s a discussion for another day.

Who Will Win: If you’d asked us this question back in December, we’d have confidently said One Battle After Another. Its domination of the awards season, not to mention its win at Producers Guild Awards (PGAs), suggested the award was almost assuredly theirs. But the surge behind Sinners, and the love that’s been shown to this Coogler’s movie over the past few months, is very real. You can’t deny the achievements of this film outside of the box office and the quality of its storytelling as well. Both are landmark movies. There’s a real chance of an upset here. We’d say we got a real barn-burner on our hands here, but given how Sinners ends, that may be a little too on-the-nose.
Who Should Win: Both. See: the entry above about Best Director.
Who We’d Like to See Win: One Battle After Another.